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  • H3938 Peter Kirkham: The Road to Economic Recovery

2 Comments

  • Mike Smith

    June 23, 2020 at 11:25 am

    Is it still valid to use the manufacturing and agriculture sectors as proxies for employment when those sectors are now a minority of the labour force? See https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-1910-and-2015.htm for example (this is American data). Although it doesn’t seem to include agricultural workers (unless they are in the “other” segment), the growth in “wholesale and retail trade” and “other professional services” in the past century would seem to indicate to me that we need a different proxy for employment.

  • David Hall

    June 29, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    Well, I’ve never seen an article like this one before. I’m sure my 3rd year prof., Dr. Cairns would approve. Although I’m not sure most Ex-Cadets will get to page 7 anyway, it is clear that the level of debt – personal, corporate and government – has never been seen before in the history of money. And as you note, we will see some form of jubilee to get rid of it. Realistically, anyone with a Defined Benefit Plan from their CAF service (full disclosure: my wife has one too) isn’t too worried about the debt load or the Ponzi Scheme from which they derive their pensions. It is only one of the great inequities between the public and private sector. All it does it add to the mortgage that we are passing on to our kids. We and the older generations are just gonna kick this can down the road a little further. Some legacy we’re leaving.
    As Mike stated above I think there is a hole in your employment discussion. I also think your chart dating to only 1986 isn’t statistically long enough to draw the conclusion that there will be a regression of these three plots. I do however agree that our “paper markets” are running on government liquidity rather than any strong fundamental underpinning.

    Neat read nonetheless. I’ll keep it.

    10950 DM Hall